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In a deeply divided electorate, swing voters are increasingly coveted by both sides. In the battleground state of Nevada, groups of voters who chose Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 discussed their thoughts on the state of the race and the country. Judy Woodruff reports for her series, America at a Crossroads.
Amna Nawaz:
In a deeply divided electorate, one group of voters is increasingly coveted by both sides, swing voters.
In the swing state of Nevada, Judy Woodruff recently listened to two groups of voters who chose Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, as they discussed their thoughts on the state of the race and the country. It’s part of her ongoing series America at a Crossroads.
Judy Woodruff:
Las Vegas, the crown jewel of the critical swing state of Nevada, the most important Democratic stronghold in a hotly contested purple state.
Vegas is a hub for tourism, entertainment, and spectacle, but behind the flashing lights of the Strip, Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to shore up support for their respective candidates. And even in a state where Democrats narrowly won in 2016 and 2020, one name looms above the rest.
Pierre, Nevada Voter:
I thought Trump as a businessman would be able to do something that professional politicians could not do.
Barbara, Nevada Voter:
I like the fact that he is a businessman. I figured that could bring fresh ideas to the table for the economy and he was not a politician, which I thought would be refreshing.
Judy Woodruff:
Everyone in these two focus groups voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
Margie, Nevada Voter:
Was I duped? I was. And ten the election was passed. Trump did not ever shut up, because I thought, well, maybe if he gets in, he will shut up. He didn’t.
Richie, Nevada Voter:
I was gung-ho Trump. But then, after we went through that time period, he started kind of going off the rails a little bit.
Judy Woodruff:
But, In 2020, they soured on President Trump and checked the box for Joe Biden.
Bryan, Nevada Voter:
I am sure they both want the best for the country. And I’m for that, but Trump, I just feel, would just say or do something wrong and just cause more chaos.
Pierre:
I thought that for all of the positives he may have created in his four years, his divisiveness was ridiculous. He could not leave the good things alone. He had to follow it up with something that made you shake your head and go, really?
Judy Woodruff:
Republican strategist and host of “The Focus Group” podcast, Sarah Longwell.
Sarah Longwell, Longwell Partners:
A lot of times, elections are decided by the way that these kind of independent swing voters break at the very end. And so how they break in 2024 is going to matter a great deal in determining who wins the election.
Judy Woodruff:
Longwell is the publisher of The Bulwark, a center-right media outlet opposed to Donald Trump. She runs focus groups like these across the country, using a nonpartisan approach to better understand all voters’ thinking.
From the control room of Vegas PBS, I watched as she engaged with these 14 Nevadans on a range of issues.
Is it possible to know what percentage roughly of the electorate this group represents, the Trump-to-Biden voters?
Sarah Longwell:
People who went from Trump to Biden, that is much closer to a 6 or 7 percent swing, but they are determinative when it comes to who wins elections in these critical swing states.
Judy Woodruff:
Their reactions to President Biden’s performance so far were mixed.
Sarah Longwell:
How many people would give Joe Biden an A during his time as president? How many would give him a B? Barbara is a B. How many would give him a C? We have got four C’s. How many would give him a D? Are you an F, Pierre?
Pierre:
He’s an F.
(Laughter)
Sarah Longwell:
OK.
Pierre:
We are at a high rate right now of food insecurity. People don’t know where they’re going to eat. So, as long as that’s the case, then the economy is not moving forward for the masses of this country.
Ruben, Nevada Voter:
Things are too expensive nowadays. The cost of living is definitely going up. And we definitely need to find a president or get a president that will able to lead this country in the right way.
Judy Woodruff:
For some of these voters, Vice President Harris’ rise at the top of the ticket was caused for enthusiasm.
Sarah Longwell:
How many of you were glad to see Vice President Kamala Harris take over for Joe Biden? Yes, raise your hand if you were glad.
Margie:
I was not for her. And then, all of a sudden, when it went in, I was so surprised. I felt like I had a breath of fresh air. It was shocking to me. But I think it was like, oh, my gosh, somebody else. And it just infused so much energy. And I was like, oh, I like this.
Bryan:
I just want something new. I want some forward thinking. I don’t want to be living back, like, being told what to do, women can’t do this. But, like, if a guy can get pregnant, there’d probably be abortion clinics on every corner. And it’s just sad that that’s the way it seems. Like, Trump just wants that power. And his followers are just like, yes.
Judy Woodruff:
Others felt they still needed to know more about her.
Nicole, Nevada Voter:
I’m very uncertain about her. There’s just a feeling. And I’m going to do lots more research before I do vote. There are rumors and things that I need to research more. Still leaning towards him a little bit more.
Sarah Longwell:
Rumors about her. Like, what kind of rumors?
Nicole:
Sleeping her way to the top. Anybody can say that about a woman. I’m tired of hearing that. Hopefully, it’s not true.
Margie:
Well, what about the men that slept their way to the top? There’s a lot of them.
Nicole:
There are. Yes.
(Crosstalk)
Margie:
We should give them both…
(Crosstalk)
Margie:
I mean, Trump’s done a lot of that. So, hey, there you go.
Nicole:
He’s had how many wives? But, yes, no, I’m tired of hearing it about women. Like, because just she went to school. She has…
Meagan, Nevada Voter:
So why bring it up now?
Nicole:
These are rumors that I need to research.
Meagan:
OK.
Nicole:
That’s what I said.
Maria, Nevada Voter:
But she was elected to all of her positions. So there is no sleeping her way to the top with that.
Judy Woodruff:
We heard skepticism about Vice President Harris’ record on the economy, despite low unemployment, falling inflation and record numbers in the markets.
Andrew, Nevada Voter:
I just don’t see a real plan that we’re going to have a better economy in four years.
Sarah Longwell:
What about you?
Pierre:
I think it’s just going to be four more years of Bidenomics and what we have just gone through with President Biden. And that’s going to be a disaster for the United States.
Judy Woodruff:
But there were also concerns about how former President Trump would use his power if reelected.
Barbara:
I think he’s running for himself to keep himself out of jail. He’s a convicted felon. I don’t trust him. I don’t believe he respects the Constitution and he will come in and he will change as much as he can. And I worry we will become a dictatorship in the United States.
Richie:
She snagged that dictatorship word from me right before I was going to use it. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to pass a thing where he can stay president for the rest of his life. So…
Sarah Longwell:
Does the fact that Donald Trump didn’t engage in the peaceful transfer of power, did that — does that bother you?
Pierre:
It bothered me. But at the same time, I have watched Trump ever since he was in New York in the ’80s. I expect — I don’t expect him to do the right thing in most circumstances, because he never has before.
But the rhetoric and what have you between the two parties, it was there before Trump showed up. He just brought it to light to the American public that didn’t know it was going on.
Judy Woodruff:
I asked Longwell, why she thought some of these voters were planning on voting for Trump despite their concerns.
Sarah Longwell:
People have a lot of reasons when it comes to Donald Trump. Like, they have very firm opinions on him. And so the question really is for a lot of these swing voters, no matter how much they dislike Donald Trump, does their belief that Donald Trump is better for the economy or immigration, does that move them back to him? Or have they decided that they still dislike Donald Trump and are willing to vote for a Democrat?
Or are they actually being persuaded that Kamala Harris is the right person at this moment?
Judy Woodruff:
There was one thing most everyone agreed on.
Sarah Longwell:
How many of you think our politics has gotten worse over the last 10 years? Why do you think it’s gotten worse?
Barbara:
It’s more political violence in our own country. I mean, look at the insurrection. That’s unprecedented, terrible. And people don’t respect each other’s differences anymore. You can’t have a civil conversation if you disagree with a lot of people. You’re just, like, seen as the enemy, both sides.
Pierre:
There’s more money in this country now than there’s ever been. And each party is trying to get some of that money. And they’re trying to grab at it with both hands and their toes.
Sarah Longwell:
Do you think that there’s something really wrong with how people in the country are viewing politics right now?
Carlie, Nevada Voter:
I think everyone has their right to their own opinion, and it shouldn’t cause violence or any, like, disdain between people, because it’s really not that important. I mean, it is important, but, like, aren’t our relationships with each other more important, like, our everyday life?
Judy Woodruff:
Still many said they feel political divisions in their own families.
Meagan:
Well, my sister and my parents don’t speak. And they haven’t for, like, three years now. And what sparked it was politics.
Judy Woodruff:
On the question of which candidate would do more to bring the country together, the consensus among these swing voters was clear.
Sarah Longwell:
Do you think the country will become more divided under Trump or less divided under Trump? How many of you think it will become more divided under Trump? How many of you think it will become less divided under Trump? Less divided?
How many of you think Trump will bring us back together and heal our divides?
Derek, Nevada Voter:
I just think Trump will make the economy better, but he won’t bring us back together. I don’t think that at all.
Sarah Longwell:
Even people who were saying that they were going to vote for Donald Trump do not think that he is going to do anything to heal the divisions in the country.
And I think that this is something that is very common among this type of swing voter, which is, if they can get there on Donald Trump, if they’re willing to go back and vote for him again, it is almost always in spite of his personality, in spite of his rhetoric, in spite of the fact that they don’t necessarily think he’s good for the country in a number of ways. But they tend to on a couple of key issues believe that Donald Trump would be better than more or less any Democrat.
Judy Woodruff:
For this still-undecided voter, a decision remained just out of reach.
Richie:
I’m not Republican, Democrat. I’m more I just want what’s best.
Sarah Longwell:
Who will you vote for?
Richie:
I can’t commit. There’s so many things we haven’t even gotten into. There’s so many good things on one side and so many good things on the other side and so many bad on each.
Judy Woodruff:
Pollster Sarah Longwell told us these swing voters are typically more accepting of people who disagree with them than are die-hard Republicans and Democrats. But they are clearly as worried as anyone about the country’s divisions.
For the “PBS News Hour,” I’m Judy Woodruff in Las Vegas, Nevada.